States may be about to miss a vital opportunity to include military emissions in national climate commitments.

COP28 agreed that countries must submit new Nationally Determined Contributions by February 2025. These transparent national plans for climate action play an important role in defining a country’s commitment to tackling the climate crisis but at present military emissions are largely absent from them. As Linsey Cottrell finds, failing to include them this year could delay their inclusion until 2030.
What are NDCs?
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are national climate plans that outline a country’s commitment to tackling climate change. They are a requirement for all states party to the Paris Agreement, the majority of which have issued their first or revised NDCs, which cover commitments up to 2030. During 2024, countries will be updating and then submitting new NDCs for the 2025 deadline.
The Paris Agreement establishes the overarching obligations and objectives for climate action but each state decides on the precise measures that it will take. The NDC sets out a country’s decisions and measures to reduce its national emissions, adapt to the effects of climate change and communicate the efforts being made. By COP30 in Brazil, these new NDCs should be economy-wide, cover all GHGs and fully align with the commitment to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C. Importantly, this means whole of society commitments, and this must include the military.
Why should the military be included?
Examining current NDCs, few even mention the military. This is a significant omission, since military GHG emissions are estimated to contribute to around 5.5% of total global emissions. The 5.5% estimate covers the emissions from day-to-day military activities, training and procurement but not the emissions from warfighting. Emissions from conflicts can also be significant but these are not included under the current reporting requirements to the UNFCCC, which contributes to why they remain largely undocumented. The Global Climate Change Indicators for 2023 show worrying increases in global temperatures and annual global emission indicators since publication of the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report. Needless to say, the method used to estimate these indicators did not specifically consider emissions linked to military activities.
Are countries committed to reducing military emissions?
Although there are significant data gaps over the scale of military emissions, NATO and militaries in several countries have acknowledged their contribution and have set out climate mitigation policies and strategies. The number of countries continues to grow and now includes Canada, Estonia, France, Germany, Japan, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Spain, the UAE and the US. Some countries – like New Zealand – include emission reduction targets, whilst others – such as the UK – instead outline vaguer commitments to “contribute” to whole of government net zero targets.
The growing list is encouraging, and a positive step forward. However, to show full commitment, provide transparency within the UNFCCC and encourage other states to follow suit, military GHG mitigation commitments should be integrated into all new NDCs. At a basic level, failing to integrate even those military GHG mitigation plans that already exist into new NDCs risks reducing external scrutiny and diminishes their likelihood of delivery. In some cases, such as Australia’s 2022 NDC, militaries have even been explicitly exempted from such commitments; this is unacceptable in the face of a climate emergency and should not be tolerated in the new round of NDCs.
Most countries have much more to do to develop and implement military climate mitigation plans but NDCs are key to achieving long-term climate goals and should be progressive and ambitious. A survey of more than 28,000 citizens of NATO member countries suggested strong public support for such an approach; just 17% of respondents believed that the military should be exempt from targets to reduce GHG emissions. It is also worth noting that research by Oxfam has highlighted that NDCs often fail to sufficiently involve and incorporate the concerns of civil society and communities. It found that greater stakeholder engagement is needed to ensure that these national climate plans truly reflect societal concerns.
In April 2024, the UN Development Programme launched the latest stage of its Climate Promise initiative to help developing countries develop and deliver their NDC pledges and support climate action on a local and national level. The initiative requires bold and urgent steps to be taken towards a net zero, resilient and inclusive future, and to meet new NDC pledges. As many of these countries have significant military expenditures and even weaker UNFCCC reporting obligations than developed countries, this could also be an opportunity to encourage and support other states to include the military in NDC pledges. This would be made easier is there was leadership from industrialised countries.
The need for urgent and ambitious action
States need to do much more than has already been promised within their existing NDCs. UNEP’s 2023 Emissions Gap report found that current NDC pledges will fail to keep global temperature rise below 1.5°C, with the world instead heading for an alarming temperature rise of 2.5-2.9°C this century.
Reducing GHG emissions at source remains more important than relying on emissions removals. According to the Land Gap report, governments have proposed that an area larger than the combined size of South Africa, India, Turkey and the EU will be used for land-based carbon removals as part of climate mitigation pledges. These figures already warn of a serious overreliance on carbon sequestration, rather than cutting emissions. We are already seeing signs of this pattern with military emissions. While there is some scope for sequestration using the military’s extensive land holdings this is not a panacea and should not be used to divert attention from cuts at source.
Effective climate action requires that the significant contribution that military GHG emissions are making to the climate crisis is addressed. Embedding commitments to reducing military emissions in NDCs would help signal a commitment not only to the targets but also to transparency. Missing the opportunity that the current round of NDC updates presents to do this will delay their inclusion until 2030, when the next round of updates is due. This would amount to an unacceptable delay in the face of the climate crisis.
Linsey Cottrell is CEOBS’ Environmental Policy Officer